With the first Saturday in May shining like a star on the horizon, the post positions have been drawn and the morning line odds set for the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (G1). A full field of 20 is set to run for the $5 million purse at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. One horse sits on the also eligible list, hoping that there will be a scratch before Friday’s deadline so that he can have a chance at glory, too. While last year’s Derby proved that any horse can win the United States’ most prestigious race, there are some clear choices, clear tosses, and some who could potentially pull an upset.
Top Picks
#8 Journalism (Curlin): Trained by Michael McCarthy and ridden by Umberto Rispoli, the Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner was set as the morning line favorite with odds of 3-1. Since breaking his maiden back in November 2024, he hasn’t set a hoof wrong. He’s risen to every challenge, beaten highly regarded horses including fellow Derby competitor Rodriguez, and trained exceptionally well since his last race. His post position is another thing in his favor. With tactical speed and the likely front runners in the post positions along the rail, Rispoli should be able to place him in the perfect ground saving, traffic free spot. The only thing that could give him trouble is the large field should his trip not set up as perfectly as anticipated; all three of his stakes victories have been against fields of five.
#18 Sovereignty (Into Mischief): With the Florida Derby (G1) winner Tappan Street out of the race, Sovereignty no longer has to face the horse he ran second to last time out. Veteran trainer Bill Mott gave the Derby ride to Junior Alvarado and the likely pace duel should set up perfectly for his deep closing style. With how he was gaining ground at the end of the Florida Derby (G1), it’s easy to believe he’ll relish the extra distance in the Kentucky Derby (G1). The outside post shouldn’t give him any problems with his closer style, but what could end up being a problem is traffic. If he can get in the clear, he’ll be gunning for the leaders hard in the stretch. He’s the morning line second choice at 5-1.
Tosses
#20 Owen Almighty (Speightstown): After his sixth place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) trainer Bryan Lynch said, ”He just doesn’t want to go that far.” With a sprinter for a sire, he was originally being aimed at the Pat Day Mile Stakes (G2) on the Derby undercard, but was put back into Derby contention on April 16. Given his results and his own trainer’s statements, there is no reason to believe he’ll suddenly become a router on Derby day, even under the guidance of jockey Javier Castellano. It’s expected his odds will be higher than the 30-1 morning line price.
#15 Render Judgment (Blame): Trainer Kenny McPeak won both the Kentucky Derby (G1) and the Kentucky Oaks (G1) last year. However, during the post position draw livestream he said that he had recommended Render Judgment run in an allowance race, but when the owners saw they had a chance to get into the field they decided to enter the big dance instead. Without a win this year and poor performances in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) and Blue Grass Stakes (G1), he’s another easy toss at 30-1 despite Julien Lepauroux getting the ride this time.
Longshots to Consider
#2 Neoequos (Neolithic): While the speed duel is likely going to be one for the ages, this frontrunner trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. is still worth taking a look at, especially at 30-1 on the morning line. He had the lead in both the Florida Derby (G1) and Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and though he didn’t win either of those races, he held on for third without looking like he was begging for the wire. A win might be unlikely, but he could be useful for the trifectas and supers. Flavien Prat is currently listed as his jockey, but it was stated in the post position livestream that his first choice is the also eligible Baeza. It is currently unknown who would take the mount if Baeza draws into the field.
#10 Grande (Curlin): Lightly raced with only three starts, this colt showed great closing potential when he finished second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) last time out. While the Kentucky Derby (G1) is a beast unlike anything he’s ever faced, trainer Todd Pletcher will no doubt have him primed for the challenge. The anticipated fast pace will play into his favor and veteran jockey John Velazguez knows how to handle the challenge of the 20-horse field. At 20-1, he’s definitely one to consider for the exotic wagers, especially with a pedigree that suggests he’ll get better the longer he goes.
Post time for the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) is 6:57 p.m. ET on May 3. It will be aired on NBC, USA Network and FanDuel TV and streamed on the NBC Sports app, Peacock and NBCSports.com.
Special thanks to Coady Media for permitting the use of their photo.
Contact the writer: [email protected]
