With the preseason AP polls being released and opening kickoff being in under 10 days, college football is officially back. This season seems the most unique in recent history, as many of the top teams hold significant uncertainties at the quarterback position, including the reigning national champions, the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Top 10 team that misses the college football playoffs: Oregon Ducks
Nearly every year, the top teams in college football get depleted by the NFL. Most years, the top programs are able to recover with new recruits, returning players and transfers. However, there are instances where the team regresses heavily. That seems to be the case for the Oregon Ducks, who enter the season on the heels of an undefeated regular season, suffering their only loss in the Rose Bowl to Ohio State, and as the seventh-ranked team in the country.
Though the addition of former Tulane Green Wave running back Makhi Hughes should provide plenty on the ground offensively, the passing game seems to be a major concern. With Dillon Gabriel heading to the NFL, redshirt sophomore Dante Moore is set to take over. Moore showed flashes of being a spectacular quarterback in his lone season at UCLA, though refinement was evident in his game, which could be seen after sitting out a season with the Ducks.
As for Moore’s pass catchers, there is a lot left to be desired. Three of the Ducks’ top four pass catchers have advanced to the professional ranks. The lone returner, Evan Stewart, suffered a knee injury and is expected to miss this season. That leaves the receiving corps in an unfamiliar place. The most likely to lead the bunch is sixth-year senior receiver Gary Bryant Jr., who has spent two of the last four seasons sidelined, and tight end Kenyon Sadiq, who saw an increase in volume from his freshman to sophomore year.
The Ducks should theoretically start the season 4-0, with three favorable non-conference games and an easier Big 10 opponent in Northwestern. Then, Oregon is faced with two tough tasks, having to head to Happy Valley to face Penn State. Following a bye, Oregon will host Indiana, following a program-tying nine-win season. The rest of the conference games favor Oregon, but that’s almost exactly when a highly touted team gets their world shaken. Among the teams who could rock Oregon’s playoff hopes is Minnesota, which went 7-5 a year ago, with four of the five losses being by one possession, and Iowa, after a 8-5 season. Both the Golden Gophers and Hawkeyes possessed top-15 defenses last year.
Group of Five team to make playoffs: James Madison Dukes
Though the only Group of Five team to make the preseason AP Top 25 is Boise State, it’s heavily due to their result from a year ago. With Heisman finalist running back Ashton Jeanty being selected in last year’s draft, there should be some regression, though the extent remains to be seen. With the top Group of Five team earning an automatic bid, the James Madison Dukes have a good shot at their first FBS playoff appearance.
The Dukes were a dominant force at the FCS level, winning the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA) six times from 2008-2021, including in 2016 when the university won the FCS National Championship. Since joining the Sun Belt Conference in 2022, JMU has gone 18-6 in conference play, with an 28-9 overall record at the FBS level. If it hadn’t been for the NCAA’s two-year transition rule for schools moving from the FCS to FBS, JMU could’ve clinched their first Sun Belt title.
James Madison has retooled their offense, after their top four pass catchers from a year ago either graduated or transferred. Among the new additions to the offense are former Richmond receivers Landon Ellis and Nick DeGennaro, former Army and Iowa state receiver Isaiah Alston and Stonyhill pass catcher Chase Miller.
More important than the transfers, JMU retained the two central cogs to their offensive success last year, starting with Alonza Barnett III. In his first season as a starter, he totaled 33 touchdowns and over 3,000 yards through the air and on the ground. Returning to the backfield for the Dukes is George Pettaway, whose first season in purple and white yielded just under 1,000 rushing yards and seven total touchdowns.
The defense definitely has its question marks, with many projected starters being added to the roster in the offseason. However, JMU’s defense does retain a few of its cornerstone players from last season, such as cornerback Jacob Thomas, who led the Dukes in tackles, linebacker Trent Hendrick and cornerback DJ Barksdale.
Surprise Power 4 Conference team to make playoffs: Nebraska Cornhuskers
Each year, there are plenty of teams that soar past expectations. Now, with the expanded 12-team playoffs, the teams who exceed the consensus have the chance to make the college football playoffs. Last year’s examples include Arizona State, Indiana and SMU, which all made their first college football playoff appearance in program history. While that more so reflects a flaw in the previous playoff bracket, it now means that you have to expect the unexpected.
What’s more expected than a team that barely cracked .500 and have six conference opponents ranking in the top 25? How about a school that had four of the previously mentioned six make last season’s playoffs? The Nebraska Cornhuskers have an uphill battle to make a playoff run, but could very much be in the same category that Arizona State, Indiana and SMU put themselves in last year.
The biggest reason why the Huskers can make the CFP is due to head coach Matt Rhule. This is his third stint as a head coach at the college level. In both of his previous two stints, Rhule’s third season ended up being his best, with the 2015 Temple Owls matching a program best in wins (10) and the 2019 Baylor Bears matching its then-program record for single season wins (11). In both scenarios, his first year resulted in a losing record, before sitting at or above .500. Similarly, Nebraska is in the same spot.
Aside from coaching, Nebraska has an ultra-talented quarterback in Dylan Raiola. After his first five collegiate games (and numerous comparisons to Patrick Mahomes), Raiola looked as if he was going to be a Heisman candidate for years to come. While the later half of his first season was nearly opposite of that statement, Raiola now has a full year of experience under his belt and can very much learn from his mistakes.
The offense received a revitalization as well, adding transfer receivers Nyziah Hunter and Dane Key, both of whom brought in over 40 receptions and eclipsed 500 yards. The new tandem being paired with Jacory Barney Jr., who connected with Raiola for 55 receptions in his freshman year, only makes the Nebraska passing game all the more terrifying. And though Dante Dowdell departed for Kentucky, Emmett Johnson, who was more efficient in his runs compared to Dowdell, will take on a larger role on the ground while still being a great dump-off option for Raiola.
Though much of the front seven of the defense no longer resides in Nebraska, the secondary from last year remains intact with Ceyair Wright, DeShon Singleton and Malcom Hartzog Jr., while adding Andrew Marshall to the corps. Adding to the linebacker room, Nebraska landed Georgia Southern’s leading tackler, Marques Watson-Trent, and former Oklahoma Sooner Dasan McCullough, who couldn’t replicate the success he had in his first college season with Indiana.
Unforeseen Heisman Trophy Candidate: Sam Leavitt, QB, Arizona State University
Looking back at last season, none of the top eight preseason favorites were Heisman finalists, let alone the winner. And though eventual winner Travis Hunter did enter the year with the shortest odds of non-quarterbacks, his preseason odds were worse than Connor Weigman, DJ Uiagalelei and Jackson Arnold, all who were benched for a portion of last season, with Arnold and Weigman transferring to new schools. Also ahead of Hunter was Cam Rising, who missed all but three games and retired due to his hand injury.
The point being that preseason predictions don’t necessarily mean anything. With that said, this season seems a bit more reeled in than a season ago. Though he may not enter the season with as outlandish odds as Hunter did last year, Sam Leavitt enters the season deserving more love than he’s currently getting.
While many credit Cam Skattebo for Arizona State’s run last season (and some credit is rightfully deserved), Leavitt was unbelievable in an offense that prioritized the run, with over 200 more attempts on the ground than in the air. And yet, Leavitt tossed 26 touchdowns and produced a 1,000-yard receiver, one of just 28 in the FBS last year.
His connection with Jordyn Tyson deserves a lot of credit for why ASU was as successful as they were last year. The duo is only expected to take another step forward. Drawing some attention away from Tyson will be Fresno State transfer Jalen Moss, who racked up over 1,200 yards in two seasons as a Bulldog. Additionally, the Sun Devils landed two former three-star recruits, Jaren Hamilton from Alabama and Noble Johnson from Clemson, both after singular seasons with their respective initial commitments. Also returning from last year’s pass catching bunch is tight end Chamon Metayer, who found his role in his first year with Arizona State.
And though the hole left by Skattebo can’t directly be replaced, the Sun Devils have a pair of running backs who can pick up the workload in the backfield. Army transfer Kanye Udoh thrived in the Black Knights run-heavy offense, even as the second running option behind quarterback Bryson Daily. Likewise, junior running back Kyson Brown improved in his opportunities last year and is primed to take another step forward.
With all these pieces around Leavitt, it’s hard to look at him and think he doesn’t have a chance to contend for the award. Though he may not be the favorite in the early portion of the season, the talent is definitely there and if the team’s record stays clean, Leavitt could find himself in New York City for the Heisman ceremony.
Preseason College Football National Champion: Clemson Tigers
As long as Dabo Swinney has been at the helm for the Tigers, Clemson has become one of the most polarizing programs in the country. With four National Championship berths and two victories in the last decade, Clemson is always in the conversation or just misses the cut for the college football playoffs. Though it’s been five years since a championship appearance, this Tigers team is destined for greatness.
This team has almost everything you’d need to be a winner and perhaps more impressively than most programs in this day and age. With the transfer portal being as prominent as it is in this era of college athletics, Clemson didn’t rebuild their entire roster through the portal. Instead, they retooled with just three players, adding Tristan Smith to a deep receiver room, sophomore breakout Will Heldt to pressure quarterbacks off the edge and linebacker Jeremiah Alexander, who never truly had the opportunity to get snaps with Alabama.
Being able to develop in-house is a trait Clemson has been known for, with starting quarterback Cade Klubnik being the prime example of this. He progressively earned more playing time across his first three years, with last season resulting in over 4,100 total yards and 43 touchdowns, entering his senior campaign as a favorite for the Heisman Trophy.
With the addition of Smith, Klubnik has a plethora of targets, as he retains his top three receivers from last year. Antonio Williams had a tremendous bounce-back season after being riddled with injuries, finishing with 75 receptions, 1,005 total yards and 12 total touchdowns. As a true freshman, Bryant Wesco Jr. dazzled, putting on a masterclass performance in Clemson’s ACC championship game against SMU, hauling in eight catches for 134 yards and two touchdowns. Similarly, T.J. Moore was exceptional in his first collegiate season, with his tour de force taking place in Clemson’s first-round loss to Texas, racking up 116 yards on nine catches, including a touchdown.
The presence former Tiger Phil Mafah leaves behind is going to be a tough one to replace, though Clemson does have two players in place to keep the ground game effective. Freshman Gideon Davidson enters the Tigers’ locker room with a ton of upside, which is a large part to why he was graded as a four-star prospect and ranked within the top five at the running back position across prospect grading sites. Additionally, redshirt sophomore Jay Haynes looked efficient in his touches as the team’s second option.
As for the defensive side of the ball, apart from Barrett Carter, RJ Mickens and Payton Page graduating to the professional level, the volatile players on the defensive side return for another season. Wade Woodaz and Sammy Brown dominated the middle of the field, each totaling over 80 tackles and 3 or more sacks. The secondary remains stout, with Avieon Terrell, Khalil Barnes, Jaedyn Lukus and Ashton Hampton patrolling the sky. For the defensive front, T.J. Parker returns, following his team leading 11 sacks, along with Peter Woods, who improved his ability to get to the quarterback.
Overall, this Clemson team might be as deep as they’ve ever been. With the core players still together and coming off a successful year, it wouldn’t be surprising if Clemson takes home its third National Championship in the last 10 years.
All stats from ESPN as of August 13.
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