Heavyweight Championship Bout: Tom Aspinall (C) vs Ciryl Gane (1)

Winner: Tom Aspinall

A few years back, I think this fight could have looked differently, but in the present day, I see another quick night at the office for the champ. Aspinall is special; his speed and power, combined with his grappling is something we’ve never seen at Heavyweight, but truthfully, I think his IQ is his most potent weapon. Aspinall isn’t gonna play around with Gane; he’s going to close the distance, land a shot and then shoot on Gane. Gane has shown no ability to get up off his back when taken down. We saw that not only in the Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones fights, but also recently against Alexander Volkov. Let’s be honest, Gane was gifted with a win. There are certainly some things that can give Apinall some problems. Gane’s body work is nasty, and we have never seen Aspinall past six minutes into a fight. If Gane can get it there, it could get interesting, but I doubt it will. Aspinall is gonna get on top and im calling my shot kimuria submission in round 1.

Womens Strawweight Bout: Virna Jandiroba (1) vs Mackenzie Dern (5)

Winner: Virna Jandiroba

This is a rare time when these two have already fought but can’t take much away from that first encounter, because they’ve made so many improvements since that encounter in 2020. This one is really tough to call. I’m gonna lean Jandiroba. She’s impressed me more recently, submitting Amanda Lemos and getting past Xionan Yan is not an easy task. I think Jandiroba can put Dern on her back and Dern will be comfortable sitting there throwing up submissions, but I’m a believer that bottom Jiu Jitsu doesn’t work in high-level MMA. I think Janiroba will be the minute the winner here, while Dern will probably be the moment winner. We’re looking at a really close decision here. This will come down to the cards and can go either way, the UAE judges seem to judge grappling heavily. I’ll go Jandiroba by a 48-47 split decision.

Bantamweight Bout: Umar Nurmagomedov (2) vs Mario Bautista (9)

Winner: Umar Nurmagomedov

I think Bautista is a good fighter and gives problems to some ranked guys, but I can’t see what he has to offer for Umar here. Bautista is a solid striker, throws a nice 1-2 and pushes at a good pace, but he’s gonna have a hard time landing. Umar is going to bounce around the outside using kicks, dart in and out with punches, and mix in the wrestling, I just see that being way too much for Mario. And honestly, it’s hard to gauge where Mario’s skill is really at. I do think he’s good but he squeaked out a win against a 40-year-old Jose Aldo, and the Patchy Mix win has aged poorly. He’s never fought someone with the skill of Umar, I think the step up is too much. I’ll take Umar by decision.

Heavyweight Bout: Alexander Volkov (2) vs Jailton Almeida (5)

Winner: Jailton Almeida

This one is super interesting because it feels like both of these guys should have had their crack at the belt already. Almedia fumbled that fight against Curtis Blaydes at UFC 299 and should have fought Aspinall that year in London. For Volkov, he should be fighting for the belt on this card, I mean, there’s no other way to say it. He got robbed against Gane at UFC 310. I think Volkov has turned the corner in his career. His last two performances against Sergei Pavlovich and Ciryl Gane were very impressive. The issue I have is I think he’s made strides in grappling, but enough to deal with Almeida I don’t think. I’m leaning Jailton here. Volkov just stands straight up. I think Almedia will get the double leg easily in the first round, and from there either get the back or get into mount and from there get the finish. Give me Almedia by submission.

Light Heavyweight Bout: Aleksander Rakic (7) vs Azmat Murzakanov

Winner: Aleksander Rakic

They say you should never pick against fighters whose name ends in Ov, especially in the UAE, but I guess I’ll be the odd man out this week. Rakic to me is elite, and I know he hasn’t won since 2021, but I can’t get that UFC 300 performance out of my head. Yes, I know he got slept, but Rakic was beating up Jiri so badly in those first two rounds but as we saw just a few weeks ago unless you’re Alex Pereira, you’re not putting Jiri away. His last time out he went to a close 29-28 decision against Magomed Ankalaev, where i thought he threw away a shot of winning in round 3 by shooting that takedown. Murzakanov is good, he’s 15-0 for a reason, is a really good striker with a nasty left hand, but i think he will struggle to land on Rakic. He’s giving up 5 inches in height and 7 inches in reach, and is just a massive step up in competition. I like Rakic here by decision.

Prelim to watch

Lightweight bout: Ludovit Klein vs Mateusz Rebecki

Winner: Ludovit Klein

This is my favorite fight on the card, by far these two of the most entertaining prospects at 155. I’ll start with Klein. I’ve been a Klein supporter ever since his win over Ignacio Bahamondes in 2023, his striking is beautiful to watch, he invests in the body so well, and it’s truly a pleasure to watch. Rebecki is just as entertaining, maybe even more, I suggest if you have 15 minutes watch his war against Myktybek Orolbai – it’s my favorite fight in UFC history. Rebecki puts 100% into every shot, and he is kill or be killed. But I have to go with Klein here, Rebecki has taken career altering damage in his last three fights. Every time he fights, his nose breaks, his eyes swell up, I think this time around it’s going to catch up to him. No shade to Chris Duncan but if he can put hands on you like he did, I can’t imagine what Klein can do. After Klein’s last performance against Mateusz Gamrot, I expect a bounce back performance: give me Klein by knockout.

All stats from UFC as of Oct 24.

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