Welterweight Title Bout: (C) Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev

Winner: Islam Makhachev

Big fight in the Big Apple, and I’m going with the big game hunter. I’ll go with Makhachev here, he’s the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world, in my opinion and overall is arguably the most skilled fighter on the roster. His striking has gotten super dangerous and has only helped open up his wrestling even more. I just feel Makhachev can hang wherever the fight plays out on the feet, on the ground or in the clinch. I think Della Magdalena is the most dangerous fighter that Makhachev is going to see. JDM’s overall striking is some of the cleanest in the sport, not just the boxing but the kicks as well. The way he changes levels with his attacks is nasty and I think that body work could give Makhachev problems. But my concern with Jack Della here is he hasn’t really fought a completely well-rounded fighter, the closest is probably Gilbert Burns that JDM was two minutes away from losing before that knee. JDM’s early takedown defense and scrambling are strong, but getting stuck on the ground remains the biggest concern in this matchup. Makhachev will only need two or three takedowns here and I think he gets it and guts out a hard-fought decision victory.

Women’s Flyweight Title Bout: (C) Valentino Shevchenko vs. Zhang Weili

Winner: Zhang Weili

I feel like this fight hasn’t received the attention it deserves, due to the main event, but this is one of the biggest women’s fights of all time. Pound for Pound No. 1 versus No. 2, two of the most technical women of all time. I’ve gone back and forth with this one, but I’ll go with Zhang Weili. I’m a huge Shevchenko fan, but I feel like she’s taken a step back. Other than the UFC 306 performance against Alexa Grasso, she’s been fighting on thin margins recently, which I don’t like. Her last fight against Manon Fiorot was razor close, and even though I think the draw against Grasso two years ago was horrible scoring on the judges’ part, the fact that it was close enough to give it a draw is a problem. Weili has just looked unbeatable since she regained the belt. Her last time out against Tatiana Suarez was a masterclass, and say what you want now about Suarez, a lot of people were picking her to win. This is going to be a technical masterpiece, but I expect Weili to land the more dangerous shots. I’ll take her by decision.

Welterweight Bout: (2) Sean Brady vs. (8) Michael Morales

Winner: (2) Sean Brady

I can hear both sides of an argument to pick a winner here, but my old coach told me to never pick against the family so I’ll side with Brady here. I really think we’re looking at a real problem here at 170 pounds. Everything about Brady’s grappling is nasty. His takedowns, his control, his submission game are some of the best in the sport. What he did to Leon Edwards was total domination. Say what you want about Leon already being controlled by Belal Muhammad, but in that fight Edwards was able to work reversals and get up. Against Brady, he looked like a White Belt. I also encourage people to watch what he did against Kelvin Gastelum. I get it, it’s not the Gastelum that fought Israel Adesanya, but to finish Gastelum is super impressive. I’ll say it as Michael Morales is terrifying and he can create some real problems for Brady. His size, speed and striking is a real problem – if you get hit clean you’ll go to sleep. I think Morales is going to get to the belt someday, but I don’t think that time is now. This is a huge step up for Morales and it does not discredit the Gilbert Burns win, because what he did was super impressive, but that’s not the same Burns who fought JDM or Khamzat. Morales overall has good takedown defense, but he lets people get to his hips, and if Brady does he’s getting taken down. I’ll take Brady by decision.

Welterweight Bout: (4) Leon Edwards vs. (9) Carlos Prates

Winner: (9) Carlos Prates

This is a tougher one for me than most people. I know everyone is on the side of Prates this week, but I don’t know if I’m ready to write off Edwards yet. Despite that, I have to go with Prates here. If Prates can’t knock out Edwards, I think this is going to be super close. I like the pressure of Prates a lot here; Leon just is very easy to walk down. Kamaru Usman, Brady and Muhammad did it and found success. I expect the same from Prates. If he can back Leon up I think he’ll have a real opportunity to knock him out. I don’t know what to make of Leon. He’s looked really bad his last two times out, granted, against really good opponents and wrestlers. This will be Leon’s first fight since 2021 where someone is not going to look to take him down. If anything, I think Edwards is going to try to work some takedowns in to try and slow down Prates. But to make this close, he’s going to have to bite down and throw, which he just hasn’t done since the Nate Diaz fight. I don’t see it here, so I’ll stick with Prates by knockout.

Lightweight Bout: (9) Beniel Dariush vs. (13) Benoît Saint Denis

Winner: (13) Benoît Saint Denis

This one hurts to pick because I’m a massive Benny Dariush fan, and I’ve always thought he’s super underrated. I picked him as an underdog in his last fight, and he came through but I can’t pull the trigger again. Daruish struggles with power and straight shots, and that’s what BSD does really well, he’s used his grappling a lot as of late, but it won’t be a factor here, no one grapples Dariush. BSD pressures well and throws a lot of volume, which I think is key if you’re going to catch Dariush. We saw Renato Moicano catch him, and BSD catches him like that you will go to sleep. Dariush’s striking is ugly, but effective. He throws a nice 1-2, an excellent left kick, but his grappling is excellent if he can get it to the mat. I don’t think Beniel is going to be able to find takedowns here, and that will be his demise. Make it three in a row for BSD. I will take him by knockout.

Prelim to watch: Middleweight Bout: Bo Nickal vs. Rodolfo Viera

Winner: Bo Nickal

There are definitely more entertaining and violent fights on the prelims, but this certainly is one of the best storylines of the week. Now, I have my opinions about Nickal and what he should be doing, but I won’t express that here because it would be 25 pages long. I do like Bo here, though it’s a really tricky matchup and very good limitless test to see where he stands. For people who don’t know a lot about Viera, he’s been a solid middleweight in his career, but he’s the most accomplished Jiu Jitsu practitioner in the sport, a multiple-time world and ADCC jiu jitsu champion and a fourth-degree black belt. The thing is RDR showed the way to beat Bo, but Rodolfo just doesn’t have that. He’s not gonna pressure you and throw long combinations. He will stand at range and pop that 1-2. He’s got good wrestling but has struggled to take down less accomplished grapplers than Nickal, so I don’t see it here. I don’t necessarily expect Bo to bounce back hugely. I see the first two rounds being played out on the feet and it coming down to the third round, where Bo will use his wrestling. I’ll take Nickal by decision

All stats from UFC as of Nov. 13

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