Bantamweight Championship Bout: (C) Merab Dvalishvili vs. (3) Petr Yan

Winner: Merab Dvalishvili

I really wanted to pick Yan here for a variety of reasons, but I can’t pull the trigger. I said a few months back that until I see Merab get beat, I can’t pick against him. Merab is improving every time we see him, which is scary. He looked great against Cory Sandhagen, even hurting him on the feet. He attempted 37 takedowns and landed 20. Right now, he just looks unbeatable.

I’m a little more nervous this time around for Merab. Yes, I understand the first fight was a 50-45 decision, but Yan fought well. Merab went 11-50 on takedowns and it was the small Apex cage. This will also be Merab’s fourth title fight this year, and we’ve seen that level of activity take its toll — just look at Reinier de Ridder vs. Brendan Allen.

But if anyone is going to overcome that, it’s Merab. I expect this fight to be much closer. I can see it playing out like the first Sean O’Malley fight. I’ll take Merab by decision.

Flyweight Championship Bout: (C) Alexandre Pantoja vs. (1) Joshua Van

Winner: Alexandre Pantoja

This might rub some people the wrong way, but I think Pantoja makes it look easy. That’s not to take anything away from Van — what he’s accomplished at 24 is remarkable — but I think it’s too soon. Pantoja is on a different level. His striking is underrated, his kicks are excellent and his grappling is obviously world-class.

I think he makes it look easy. I believe the takedown he shoots in the first 30 seconds will be on the level of a Khamzat shot — and yes, I mean that. It looks unstoppable. I think Pantoja will have no problem landing takedowns and taking Van’s back.

Van is really good and beating Brandon Royval is super impressive. His hands, speed, volume and target mixing are tremendous. But he’s a little small for a flyweight and he won’t have the power to put Pantoja down. He’s only been grappling for a few years, and the experience gap is too significant. I’ll take Pantoja by submission in Round 1 or 2.

Flyweight Bout: (1) Brandon Moreno vs. (5) Tatsuro Taira

Winner: Tatsuro Taira

I’ve always thought Taira was the next big thing and even after the Royval loss, my opinion didn’t change. I still think he’s a future champ and right now, he’s the only guy at 125 who I believe can beat Pantoja.

His striking has improved tremendously since the Royval fight. His last bout was short notice against an unranked opponent, but he looked super comfortable. Moreno is a really good scrambler, but I think Taira is a step ahead. He has multiple ways to take you down and the way he takes the back is special.

Moreno looked good in his last fight. Honestly, if Erceg had thrown more, it could’ve been closer, but Moreno did a great job out-voluming him. His jab is sharp, and he can pressure well. He’ll give Taira some issues.

But Taira only needs two takedowns. If he gets you down, you’re not getting up. I’ll take Taira by 29–28 decisions.

Bantamweight Bout: (10) Henry Cejudo vs. Payton Talbott

Winner: Payton Talbott

I’ve seen a lot of back-and-forth about this fight, but to me it’s pretty straightforward — I’m going with Talbott.

I think Cejudo is past his prime. He hasn’t looked great in his last two fights. He fell apart after the first five minutes against Merab and was down two rounds to Song Yadong before the eye poke. I don’t see much success for Triple C here. He’s giving up a big size and reach advantage and I think he’ll struggle to land on Talbott.

People will mention Henry being an Olympic gold medalist and Talbott getting mauled by Rani Yahya — but Cejudo has never really been a strong control wrestler. He’s 3-18 in his last takedown attempts.

Talbott impressed me with how he bounced back. The Barcelos loss looked bad at the time, but the win over Felipe Lima was extremely impressive. Lima is very good and was even favored.

Talbott’s striking is nasty. I expect him to use his length and bounce on the outside while picking Henry apart. I’ll take Talbott by decision, but a late TKO is absolutely in play.

Light Heavyweight Bout: (5) Jan Blachowicz vs. (11) Bogdan Guskov

Winner: Jan Blachowicz

This is the closest line on the card for a reason. I can hear arguments for both sides, and I’ve gone back and forth, but I slightly lean Blachowicz.

Jan is 42 and will probably be wearing knee sleeves, but at this point he’s the definition of a crafty vet. He truly had an argument that he beat both Pereira and Ulberg. His striking is very good with punishing kicks, and his grappling is underrated. That’s where I think he wins this.

His entries are good, he controls well on top, and he has a slick back take that never gets talked about. Guskov is good — slick hands, real power, good camp — but the level of competition is the issue. Zac Pauga, Ryan Spann and Billy Elekana are not strong wins. And while the Krylov KO was fun, Krylov is past his prime and can’t take a shot.

Guskov was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir and has been taken down by both Spann and Elekana. I’m making a prediction that not many people are talking about: Blachowicz by submission.

Prelim to Watch

Lightweight Bout: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Fares Ziam

Winner: Nazim Sadykhov

This fight being so low on the prelims is disrespectful to both guys. Whoever is reading this — watch this fight.

I’m impressed with both prospects, but I’m siding with Sadykhov. Both are technical strikers. Sadykhov will give up reach, but I think he can work inside. His striking is nasty — elite boxing, strong kicks — and he’s a good grappler, which I think he’ll mix in here.

The only downside is his defense. He shells up and absorbs a lot on the guard, and it looks like he’s hurt. In the Motta fight, I thought the ref was about to stop it.

Ziam is a phenomenal striker, and his defensive grappling has really improved, especially against Mike Davis. He reminds me of a lesser Ian Garry in how tactical he is. If you fight his fight, he’ll out-point you. But I don’t see Sadykhov letting that happen.

I think Sadykhov pressures, uses his striking to set up his wrestling and wins. I’ll take Sadykhov by decision.

All stats from UFC as of Dec. 5.

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